沪镍本周走势温和，仅在高位震荡。我们维持前期判断，镍或将走个楔形来蓄势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
今日，沪镍主力2103合约收于133380元/吨，周涨幅990元/吨。      
2.影响因素及分析
本周一，国内经济年报揭晓，GDP等重磅经济数据出炉。2020年国内生产总值突破100万亿，同比增长2.3%，其中第四季度增长6.5%。全年看经济运行稳定恢复，主要目标任务完成情况好于预期，成绩斐然，特别是在2020年我国开局如此之艰难的情况下。
国际方面，美权力平稳过度，长期看好拜登相对特朗普的抗疫热情和力度。拜登1.9万亿美元纾困方案大概率实施，美联储主席发声称短期不会加息，保持流动性。日本和欧洲央行维持利率不变。而国内市场跨春节资金面大概率宽松，央行维持不急转弯的整体政策基调。
据SMM，今日，金川镍报价141300-141700元/吨，升水6600元/吨；进口镍135200-135600元/吨，升水450元/吨。菲律宾红土镍矿价格持稳，报65.5美元/湿吨（1.5CIF）。硫酸镍价格延续涨势，均价33750元/吨。山东、江苏地区高镍铁出厂价报1110-1115元/镍。低镍铁涨至3600元/吨。
数据方面，国际镍业研究小组(INSG)周三公布的数据显示，11月全球镍市供应过剩升至2,000吨，10月修正后为过剩400吨。中国2020年全年累计进口精炼镍约13.07万吨，同比减少30.52%；累计出口1.89万吨，同比减少48.37%。
目前伦镍接近去年禁矿打出的高点，而近期伦镍虽有长阳但并未形成有效冲击。尤其是纯镍对镍铁升水依然较高的情况下，电解镍的调整和镍铁的上涨是最正常不过的现象。这也可以很好的解释我们不认为镍会短线爆发的观点。
但我们仍认为，镍是要走个楔形来蓄势，待市场热情、资金热情及宏观都有一定的引爆点后再一举冲破高位，或在年前。也许要等纯镍端对镍铁的升水大幅回落后才有下一波大涨的机会，毕竟镍铁对应的不锈钢才是下游巨大而厚重的存在。
另外，从套利的角度看，沪伦比值接近多年低点，其中虽有今年美元持续走弱的因素，但沪伦比值依然存在上涨的空间。
3.结论及策略
镍短线的调整和蓄势给后期上涨带来较好的基础。沪镍或走个楔形来坐实强势整理。